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Dear Thrumpers: what about the Dow?

Olejoe

Posted 9:30 pm, 08/24/2018

Trump is going down......to McDonald's to get a Big Mac.

aFicIoNadoS

Posted 3:26 pm, 08/24/2018

I hear going down is your hobby

Hop sing

Posted 2:33 pm, 08/24/2018

Trump is going down

bobadita

Posted 12:41 pm, 08/24/2018

Hillary lost the election. Accept it. Get over it. Calm down.
Your tirades and tantrums will not change anything.

aFicIoNadoS

Posted 8:17 am, 08/24/2018

Herbie, even NPR admitted yesterday that the removal of a sitting president would cause a market drop. The market likes consistency more than anything

Harbinger

Posted 8:06 am, 08/24/2018

Here he goes again. More propaganda about the stock market:


“If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash, I think everybody would be very poor, because without this thinking, you would see �" you would see numbers that you wouldn’t believe in reverse.”

(Donald Trump, Fox News Interview August 23, 2018)


Two questions:


Why would a stock market that has been rising without Trump’s influence for almost a decade collapse just because Trump is gone?


Don’t we deserve better than this Soviet-style propaganda from the President of the United States?


One observation:


Whether his supporters know it or not, poor little Donnie boy is in real legal trouble. His response to this real legal trouble isn’t to take responsibility for his words and actions, but to threaten us all with economic destruction should the law hold him accountable. How messed up is that?



CYA tomorrow

Harbinger out

Tiger's Blood

Posted 12:11 pm, 08/23/2018

Harbinger (view profile)

Posted 9:54 am, 08/23/2018

So none of you can explain Trump’s tweet of February 7, two days after the biggest one-day point loss in the history of the Dow?

So none of you can explain why Harboner couldn't properly wipe himself February 7, two days after he tackled two Hardee's Monster Thick burgers, a large fry and Diet Coke? You're a G.D. joke! The only people who give a flying fart over The Buffoon's tweets are ignorant snowflakes like you. Quit embarrassing yourself.

jack rip her

Posted 12:10 pm, 08/23/2018

Harry did you lose your butt back in February? Is that why you want to blame one man for you losing your shirt? Only a liberal moron.

aFicIoNadoS

Posted 10:30 am, 08/23/2018

Give it up Herbie, you’ve already been beaten. Even Trump’s critics here have turned against you.

Harbinger

Posted 9:54 am, 08/23/2018

So none of you can explain Trump’s tweet of February 7, two days after the biggest one-day point loss in the history of the Dow?


I figured as much.


I’ll give you another shot. Here’s the tweet again:


In the “old days,” when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!


Does the stock market function the way this tweet implies?


What does he mean by “old days”? What does he mean by “today”?


Whose “mistake”?


How is his “good (great) news about the economy” any different from good news about the economy we got during the Obama administration?


Can a rational person consider this tweet truthful in any way?


How is this tweet any better than Soviet-style propaganda?


And last, but not least, do not I, as an American citizen, have the right, perhaps even the duty, to hold the President to a higher standard than the one exemplified in this insipid tweet?


I await your non-answers with great anticipation… meanwhile I’ll work on my next post for this thread.


CYA tomorrow

Harbinger out

aFicIoNadoS

Posted 4:55 pm, 08/22/2018

Herbie, you are trying too hard to analyze 40 characters. You’ve been debunked. Move on

Pappyspal

Posted 9:12 am, 08/22/2018

Me too. Give it a rest, Harbie…..

Harbinger

Posted 5:34 am, 08/22/2018


The following tweet came from one Donald J. Trump, supposed economic genius, on Wednesday, February 7, 2018, two days after the Dow suffered its biggest one-day point loss ever:


“In the ‘old days,’ when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (Great) news about the economy.”


Let’s see it if we can figure out what he is going on about:


What did he mean by “In the ‘old days’? Was there some golden age when the Dow did not respond to inflation fears? Perhaps he was being sarcastic, and by ‘old days’ he meant the Obama years when the media and any number of other evil entities conspired to make the then-President look good? But that cannot what he meant; he’d have to be crazy to believe such a thing, besides the Dow under Obama also had losses sparked by positive economic news. Perhaps he meant something else entirely. Can anybody help with this question? I’m afraid my Trumpanese isn’t up to the task. What did he mean by ‘old days’?


When he says “good news was reported” does he not understand that good news of early February (wage and employment numbers) was accompanied by troubling news (potential inflation)? Does he not understand why investors, especially huge institutional investors, panic at the thought of an overheated economy? Does he not understand wages must keep pace with inflation for good news about rising wages to mean anything positive in the long run?


When he says “Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down,” is he being literal? Okay… I may be a little harsh here; nobody is stupid enough to think that the nature of the stock market has recently undergone some fundamental change in which market forces have been replaced by an automatic reaction to “good” news. Surely a smart cookie like Donnie wouldn’t believe something so silly. So why did he write such nonsense? Hmmmmmm… oh yea… He doesn’t have to believe the nonsense he writes; he only has to believe that his supporters will believe the nonsense he writes. Wow, he really holds the people who voted for him in high regard, doesn’t he?


And what, in the name of all that’s holy, does he mean by “Big mistake”? Whose mistake? The stock market’s? How does that work? Maybe the nefarious forces that control the market made the “big mistake” in a bald-faced attempt to defame poor little Donnie Boy? May be it was the deep state? No… wait… I got it… he meant the investors… sure, that’s the ticket… no… that can’t be it… some of the investors, just a few no doubt, sold short and made money on the crash, and some of the investors, a much bigger percentage than the short sellers, sold off stocks that were destined to lose value as the Dow preceded to lose points over the weeks to come. So what did Trump mean by “big mistake”?


And one last thing: why did he make this asinine tweet in the first place? What information of value did he convey to the American people? Does the stock market really work the way he implies?


Trump lies, deflects and equivocates, and you little Trumpsters put your fingers in your ears and pretend shadowy conspiratorial forces are the real problem.


Trump has a lot to answer for, and so do the people who voted for him.


CYA tomorrow

Harbinger out

jrscott295

Posted 12:37 pm, 08/21/2018

I agree with FINS :)

aFicIoNadoS

Posted 10:03 am, 08/21/2018

We’ve already covered that the market dips was it correcting for expected inflation after 8 years of interest rates being artificially controlled. Investors know eventually rates have to return to normal and with that will be inflation.

But we have really gotten to your issue. Your issue is you just don’t like trump or anything he does. All presidents play it up when the market is climbing, and try to ignore the issue when it drops. Trump coming from the background of an entertainer instead of a politician just is more of a showman about it. You are a partisan troll.

Harbinger

Posted 9:01 am, 08/21/2018

******CORRECTION******

I FOUND TWO FACTUAL ERRORS IN POSTS I MADE ON THIS THREAD. THE DATE OF THE GREATEST ONE-DAY POINT LOSS IN THE DOW WAS NOT, AS I REPORTED, ON FEBRUARY 2 OF THIS YEAR BUT RATHER THREE DAYS LATER ON FEBRUARY 5 WHEN THE DOW LOST 4.6 PERCENT OR 1,175 POINTS. THE FEBRUARY 2 LOSS OF 665.75 POINTS WAS ONLY THE NINTH BIGGEST ONE DAY LOSS IN THE HISTORY OF THE INDEX.


ALSO I WROTE THAT THE DOW LOST ABOUT 12 PERCENT OF ITS VALUE IN A SEVEN-WEEK PERIOD BEGINNING ON FEBRUARY 2 WHEN ACTUALLY THE DOW LOST ABOUT 12 PERCENT OF ITS VALUE IN AN EIGHT-WEEK PERIOD BEGINNING JANUARY 26.


I apologize for any confusion this may have caused: I know how scrupulous you guys are about accuracy.



That’s a bit embarrassing, but got to keep it real. Besides I did learn something while I was rechecking my facts: Did you guys know that 3 of the Dow’s 5 biggest one-day point losses (4 of the top 9) occurred between January 26 and March 23 of this year, during the 8-week period in which the Dow lost a significant portion of its value (11.55 percent)?

I know what you’re thinking: why does he go on and on about the Dow?


I understand your feelings in this matter. And I agree that the Dow, alone, as is not a the best metric for judging POTUS, but it is the metric Trump chose for himself, and it was the keystone of Trump’s self-promotion campaign from the beginning of his term until February of this year when the subject lost its propaganda value. So as far as I’m concerned the Dow is fair game, if for no other reason than to highlight the endless hypocrisy and mental shallowness of the con artist in chief.


But I’ll get into that more on tomorrow’s post when we explore an actual response from Trump himself. I’m sure you will find it enlightening.


CYA tomorrow

Harbinger out

Pappyspal

Posted 5:53 pm, 08/17/2018

What is this guy's stock market fetish? Geez, Wall Street kind of far down the list of this country's problems. When Warren Buffet goes broke, then we can all worry.

aFicIoNadoS

Posted 6:39 am, 08/17/2018

Hairy, the best part of your post is how you keep contradicting your own message and don’t even realize it.

Harbinger

Posted 6:29 am, 08/17/2018

Q: Why do bubbles burst?

A: Because that’s what bubbles do. Internal pressure stretches the bubble to a point where it can no longer withstand external pressure and… pop.


Q: Is there any way to keep a bubble from bursting?

A: Only if you don’t create the bubble in the first place.


Q: Do market bubbles inevitably burst as well?

A: Yep. That’s why they call them bubbles. In stock market bubbles, internal pressure caused by speculation and fueled by emotion drives the price of stock to an unsustainable level. When enthusiasm for the market weakens (as it will once the price of stock is pushed above the point of equilibrium), investors are forced to deal with external factors and… pop.


Q: What external forces were in play earlier this year when the Dow lost 3000 points in seven weeks?

A: There is a February 8 article in CNN Money that outlines a few of these factors, placing fear of inflation as the number one concern of investors. The article, however, was written six weeks before the market actually bottomed out, so there may be some considerations the author didn’t take into account. One of these unnamed factors is uncertainty over Trump’s trade policy; if you don’t believe, look at what happened to stocks yesterday: the Dow jumped 390 points due primarily on news that the US and China will begin trade talks later this month, possibly mitigating the trade war between the two nations. Had investors had no concerns about tariffs, such a jump on such news would be unlikely.


Also, the factors in the article (concerns about inflation, interest rates and the bond market) have been a constant for some time now and only caused such a large collapse because the Dow was overvalued to begin with.


Q: Why do you say the Dow was overvalued?

A: Well… the Dow has been rising from almost the beginning of the Obama administration; when Trump became president it began to rise at an even steeper rate. This steeper climb, however, was not based on trust in particular stocks, but rather on speculation fueled by massive corporate stock buybacks, a practice that was illegal prior to the Reagan administration. The stock buybacks were a direct effect of Trump’s supply side economic strategy, which promised corporations huge tax cuts. In November of 2017, when it was becoming certain the tax cuts would be passed, stocks began to rise even more sharply, culminating in a 7.7 percent rocket shot in January of this year. Then on February 2, an improving labor market (another trend that began on Obama’s watch) ignited inflation fears and the bubble burst and began a 7-week slide from about 26600 points to about 23,600 points.


Q: So do blame Trump?

A: Absolutely. Like I said before, the only way to keep a bubble from bursting is not to create the bubble in the first place. Trump, through his economic plan, created the conditions necessary for the February slide. Of course Trump’s incessant cheerleading of the market last year didn’t help either.


There is also the possibility that the supply side strategy, with its infusion of cash into the private sector, added to the inflation fears that sparked the selloff, at least according to CNN Money in the video commentary that accompanied the February 8 article cited above.


Q: One last question: why write about the crash?

A: I didn’t only write about the crash, I also tried to bring attention to the flatness of the market on the year. But the main thing I wanted people to pay attention to Trump’s silence concerning this issue and contrast that with the continuous boasting of 2017 in which Trump pretended a 9-year-long bull market was all his doing. POTUS wanted us to believe that he, Donald J. Trump, father of Trump University and God only knows how many other scams, personally created trillions of dollars of wealth. His evidence? The Dow. But, like most of Trump’s “accomplishments”, the wealth he created was little more than smoke, and, like smoke, it vanished into thin air.


I am concerned about the nation and its economy. There are huge downsides to supply side economics, downsides, by the way, that may be worth the risk in times of recession when the economy needs a boost. But Trump did not inherit a recession. On contrary he inherited an economy that was doing well. Yes, there were underlying economic problems during the Obama years, but those problems (healthcare costs, the national debt, stagnant wages, crumbling infrastructure and more) still persist and Trump has not offer any plan to deal with them.


No, Trump must do what is good for Trump. So he must pretend that the Obama economy was a disaster that only he can fix. Well congratulation, Trumpers, you fixed an economy that wasn’t broken and all it will cost the nation is a few trillion more in governmental debt.


You Trumpists live in a fantasy, a world in which Donald Trump, the billionaire who had to become a gameshow host to make ends meet, is always right and no propaganda defending him is too outrageous. In your world, this obvious conman knows more than intelligence agencies, economists, scientists, military experts, diplomats and, I suppose, everyone else on the planet. How Americans, people with the liberty to think for themselves, can so easily fall into a cult of personality is distressing, but no matter, one day you may wake from your dream of culture wars and shadows and see the world through objective eyes.


Undoubtedly, you will bury this post under a mountain of invective and twisted logic, but I don’t care. I’ll have another post on another day.


CYA tomorrow

Harbinger out

aFicIoNadoS

Posted 8:09 am, 08/15/2018

Wow Hairy, you really are a little whiny *****. Before now you haven’t been insulted. Someone opining thst you area communist based on the crap you’ve rambled off is not an insult. But now you can cry that I’ve been mean to you without being a liar about it.

But furthermore Hairy, I haven’t misrepresented your statements and I haven’t lied about your posts. I also haven’t posted false facts or stats. It’s not my fault that you couldn’t find them on your own. What I’m sure though that everyone has caught on to is that you are a troll. When your claims have been countered, you have not once tried to debate the retort. You merely sling around some accusations and try to move the goal posts. Not once did you try to address what I’ve said. You only jump up and try to yell “liar” at everyone before people figure out how full of bull•••• you are.

Now, do you have a reply to the issue of the market adjusting over inflation concerns? Or are you just going to keep running from the conversation and continue twisting in the wind?

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